Gold News

Gold 'Shooting Star' Leaves Price Flat Despite New Geopolitical Tensions

The PRICE of GOLD held $25 lower on Wednesday from yesterday's fresh all-time high, a peak widely deemed "a shooting star" by chart-watching technical analysts, warning of a pullback despite fresh geopolitical violence and turmoil overnight, plus weaker-than-expected US inflation data boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut Dollar interest rates next week.

Global stock markets meantime continued to push higher, with US equities setting fresh records on the S&P500 index while government bond yields eased back.

"Stop violating allied airspace," Nato military alliance chief Mark Rutte told Russia today after drones attacking Ukraine − part of airstrikes killing 29 civilians − flew up to 250 miles (400km) inside Poland.

"This is the closest we have been to open conflict since World War Two," warned Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Yet to comment on Russia's military incursion into Nato airspace, US President Trump meantime said he's "very unhappy" about Israel attacking a residential area of Doha, capital of Arabian US ally Qatar, in a bid to eliminate senior members of Palestinian group Hamas' peace negotiating team.

Hitting fresh record gold highs in all currencies on Tuesday just before Israel's airstrikes on Qatar, the London bullion price peaked at $3673 per Troy ounce in London spot dealing, but then fell to trade little changed over the past 24 hours around $3650.

Chart of gold priced in Dollars, past 24 hours. Source: BullionVault

"A bearish doji shooting star candle has formed," says one technical analyst, "signaling that a short-term pullback is possible" thanks to yesterday's 'bearish reversal' pattern of a steep rise ending with prices almost unchanged.

"On the daily chart," agrees a technical analysis from one London bullion bank, "a shooting star formed around resistance at $3653, symbolizing the dissipation of the bullish momentum.

"Technicals highlight that loss despite what appears to be a never ending upward trend. The risk grows even larger when we look at positioning among CTA [commodity trading advisors]."

"Speculators have been adding to their net long positions," agrees a blog from the CME derivatives exchange, "and open interest [in Comex gold futures and options] saw a large jump as speculators bought into the latest gold rally.

"Volatility has been trickling lower, despite the fact that gold is making new all-time highs."

On the data front meantime, US producer prices fell 0.1% in August new figures said Wednesday, cutting factory-gate inflation sharply lower to 2.6% per year.

China's producer prices meantime showed 2.9% annual deflation last month, markedly softer than July's 3.6% drop.

But deflation accelerated in Chinese households' cost of living, with the consumer price index dropping 0.4% from August last year on the official NBS data agency's figures.

With US consumer price inflation data due Thursday, betting that the US Federal Reserve will cut rates by a shock half-point at next week's September meeting − making speculation in gold and other commodity derivatives cheaper − today rose to 1-in-10 on the CME derivatives exchange, with the other 90% of positions still backing a quarter-point cut from the current level of 4.33% per annum.

Betting on year-end rates was unchanged for the 3rd session running after Friday's shock weakness in US jobs data − worsened by yesterday's longer-term downwards revision of prior figures − giving a consensus forecast of 3.68% for Christmas.

"Prospects of continued accommodative monetary policy, increasing geopolitical tensions, ongoing macroeconomic challenges, and concerns over the Fed's independence are expected to strengthen the investment case for gold," reckons analysts at Australasian bank ANZ, raising their previous year-end forecast − made a week before gold first topped $3500 in April − by $200 to $3800, with a possible $4000 price tag by June 2026.

France's day of 'Block everything!' protests today saw nearly 300 arrests across hundreds of blockades, blamed by outgoing Minister of the Interior Bruno Retailleau on "the far-left" moving to "steal" an otherwise grassroots movement of centre-left voters.

Yesterday's vote of 'no confidence' in the Government's proposed "austerity" spending plans has seen President Macron appoint his 3rd new Prime Minister in 12 months, this time career politician Sébastien Lecornu.

"The single Euro currency has allowed excessive debt to build up and it is now impossible to devalue it to restore failing competitiveness," says economics columnist Jean-Pierre Robin in Le Figaro.

High-earning employees in Germany will have to pay significantly higher social security contributions starting next year, says German newspaper FAZ, reporting a Government proposal.

Left-wing extremist group 'Vulkangruppe' has been blamed for arson attacks causing a blackout yesterday for 50,000 households and businesses in Berlin.

Thirteen German airports including major hubs Frankfurt and Munich were shut by strike action on Monday, with the Verdi services-sector trade union now threatening action at major ports including Hamburg over pay and conditions.

 

Adrian Ash

Adrian Ash, BullionVault Gold News

Adrian Ash is director of research at BullionVault, the world-leading physical gold, silver, platinum and palladium market for private investors online. Formerly head of editorial at London's top publisher of private-investment advice, he was City correspondent for The Daily Reckoning from 2003 to 2008, and he has now been researching and writing daily analysis of precious metals and the wider financial markets for over 20 years. A frequent guest on BBC radio and television, Adrian is regularly quoted by the Financial Times, MarketWatch and many other respected news outlets, and his views from inside the bullion market have been sought by the Economist magazine, CNBC, Bloomberg, Germany's Handelsblatt and FAZ, plus Italy's Il Sole 24 Ore.

See the full archive of Adrian Ash articles on GoldNews.

Please Note: All articles published here are to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it. Please review our Terms & Conditions for accessing Gold News.

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