Dollar Drop Update

Quick view of the Euro, Yen, Swissy, GBP...

 

NON-DOLLAR currencies have been in varying forms of bounce to bullish, says Gary Tanashian in his Notes from the Rabbit Hole.

 

This is the global currencies chart we review each week in NFTRH. It's a daily chart meant to keep track of the intermediate trends in the global cohort of developed market currencies vs. the heretofore King of the World, Uncle Buck.

 

 

With the prospect of a USD bounce coming soon, we'll manage the bounce in NFTRH and define its limits and parameters within a potential larger downside move. Meanwhile, you can use this chart to gauge who's doing what, globally.

 

Swissy (CHF): has ticked a new high in its bull cycle vs. USD. Also of note, this pair generally runs in rough correlation with gold, which makes sense, given Swissy's former reputation as a hard currency.

 

Yen (JPY): has spiked hard within its downtrend. Interestingly, I looked at Yen-hedged Japan equity funds the other day and they were down while unhedged EWJ was up with the rest of the world. Ah, currency complications. Gotta love 'em (or at least deal with them).

 

Euro (EUR): is right behind CHF in the let's thump Uncle Buck sweepstakes. I believe Europe is further behind in the inflation fight than the US and so the currency is getting forward ECB hawk bids. That's just the opinion of a participant who does not deep dive into FOREX and its fundamental elements.

 

GBP (British Pound): see directly above.

 

Commodity Currencies (CAD & AUD, Canada & Aussie Dollars): we've been noting over the last couple of weeks that CAD looked constructive to bullish but AUD was neutral at best. On balance these two tend to favor the commodity/resources inflation trades when they rise.

 

With AUD's recent jump that prospect looks constructive at worst right now.