Gold -2.3% from Record Week-End Price as Citi's 'Bearish' Calls Defies Coin-and-Bar Market Trends
Friday, 6/20/2025 11:52
The PRICE of GOLD slipped but silver rallied from 7-session lows on Friday in London as global stock markets also fell for the week amid the worsening Israel-Iran conflict plus growing concerns over US President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill of deficit-funded tax cuts.
Gold bullion traded in London today cleared around $3355 per Troy ounce at this morning's 10:30am auction, down 2.3% from
last Friday's record-high week-end gold price level.
Silver meantime headed for a midday fix around $36.15 per Troy ounce, up 10 cents from last Friday's price.
Now passing through the US Senate, Trump's OBBB of tax and spending cuts − forecast to raise the US government's
budget deficit to 7.0% of GDP in 2026 − is unpopular with a majority of voters according to a small opinion poll published by pro-Trump news outlet Fox.
"[But] we think [the Bill] is going to mark a shift in sentiment towards US growth," says US financial giant Citi's analyst Max Layton,
telling BNN Bloomberg in Canada that it will "lead to a bit more positivity and a little less investment buying of gold.
"With that, you basically unwind the primary driver of the last $700 move in the gold price...[so] our call is very much a 2026 bearish gold call."
"The move from $2600 to $3300 this year has been all about investors buying bars and coins," Layton says, "particularly bars, because they're hedging against a downside in US and global growth, as well as a downside in equities [through] the combination of still extremely high interest rates in the US by historical standards and [Trump's trade] tariffs."
That view contradicts all available data and anecdote from the retail coin and bar market however, which outside India and China − where
'investment' product demand overtook jewelry buying this New Year on a collapse in adornment purchases − demand by weight in January to March set the lowest Q1 total since 2019.
In the US this week, "Business is slow" says one leading retailer to BullionVault. "We're still finding more sellers than buyers. It's the same across the American precious metals dealer market."
Over in Germany −
formerly the retail bullion market's darling during the negative cash interest rates of 2014-2022 imposed on bank savers − "High precious metal prices are now perceived as the norm," says one dealer after more than 2 years of poor demand and heavy profit-taking.
"So not every new small increase in prices immediately leads to another run of customer selling."
But "June has still been very quiet so far," says another, "and the rapid rise in the price of silver has brought additional sellers" into the retail market for coins and small bullion bars.
Iran "is punishing" Israel for attacking its nuclear research sites and killing senior military commanders, Tehran's dictatorship said today.
It "will be held accountable for war crimes," Israeli leaders replied, after yesterday's Iranian missile strike on a hospital in southern Israel.
With Iranian officials meeting European counterparts Saturday to discuss a ceasefire, "I will make my decision on whether or not to [hit Iran] within the next two weeks" said US President Trump on Thursday.
Crude oil steadied today below yesterday's 5-month high of $77 per barrel of Brent, while copper held in the middle of this month's range.
Gold priced in Euros showed the same weekly drop from its record-high Friday level of €2980.
The UK gold price in Pounds per ounce meanwhile shed 2.0% from £2536 as Sterling slipped 0.5% on the currency market following the Bank of England's decision on Thursday to hold interest rates unchanged despite rising inflation and worsening economic growth.
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